Sunday, March 1, 2015

Does The Arrival Of Negative Interest Rates Change the Attractivess of Euro Membership?

This is the second in a series of posts (first one here) in  which I try to argue that the balance between costs and benefits of belonging to the European monetary union has shifted in the post crisis world, especially for heavily indebted countries such as those to be found on the European periphery.

The benefits of belonging (in terms of debt support given via ECB QE) have risen, while the disadvantages of being outside - as has been seen in countries like Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland - have also grown. This is not a complete cost/benefit balance sheet, but a limited exploration of just one area. That being said it is an area where exploration may help those who simply can't understand the recent determination shown by the Greeks to maintain their Euro membership, a determination which I think is difficult for those in London or the US (who are using a traditional deleveraging and monetary policy framework) to understand.
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